Last updated: 2026-07-06
Europe's Zinc Smelter Collapse: How the 2021–2024 Energy Crisis Shut Half the Continent's Capacity
All nine of the EU's electrolytic zinc smelters were forced to curtail or fully idle production
between October 2021 and January 2024, with roughly 750,000 tonnes of capacity suspended at the
peak — about 45% of EU output — after European electricity prices rose as much as
tenfold following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Nyrstar, majority owned by trading house Trafigura, was the first and hardest hit. The
company cut output by up to 50% across its three fully electrified European smelters —
Budel (Netherlands, 315kt nameplate), Balen (Belgium), and
Auby (France) — from October 2021, citing electricity costs that had "continued to
escalate in recent weeks in France, surpassing those of neighboring countries"
(Argus Media, 13 Oct 2021).
Auby was placed on full care and maintenance in January 2022 before resuming partial output in March 2022
(Euronews, 19 Mar 2022;
Reuters, 16 Dec 2021).
Budel was the most severely affected site, twice placed into extended care and
maintenance. Nyrstar first idled the 315,000-tonne-per-year plant from 1 September 2022 "as a response to
various external factors," with a source telling Reuters that electricity costs had "surged by as much as
tenfold" (Reuters, 16 Aug 2022;
Nyrstar press release, 16 Aug 2022).
It restarted at reduced capacity but was idled a second time in January 2024, with Nyrstar stating the
decision followed "persistent and anticipated high energy costs alongside worsening market circumstances,"
and explicitly blaming the Dutch government's decision to end indirect cost-compensation support for
energy-intensive industry, which left Budel "at a significant disadvantage compared to similar operations
in other European member states"
(Reuters, 15 Jan 2024 (copy: Yahoo Finance);
Nyrstar press release, 30 Apr 2024).
Budel restarted again in May 2024 after the Netherlands temporarily reinstated indirect cost compensation
(Nyrstar, 30 Apr 2024).
Glencore's Portovesme smelter in Sardinia, Italy (100,000 tonnes per year, primary zinc
sulphide line) was placed on care and maintenance from the end of 2021, "prompted by the elevated power
costs observed in Italy and across Europe," while its secondary (recycling) zinc line continued operating
(Reuters, 22 Nov 2021).
Glencore's other European zinc assets — Nordenham in Germany (165,000 tpa) and
San Juan de Nieva/Asturias in Spain (510,000 tpa) — also throttled production in
response to peak pricing through 2022, and Nordenham itself was placed on care and maintenance from
1 November 2022, becoming the third major West European zinc smelter closure inside a year
(Mining.com, 6 Oct 2022;
Reuters (Andy Home), 9 Aug 2022).
Why it matters: a joint CEO letter from Europe's non-ferrous metals producers to European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that "50% of the EU's aluminium and zinc capacity has
already been forced offline due to the power crisis," with Goldman Sachs estimating 750,000 tonnes of
suspended zinc capacity — 45% of total EU production — on top of a further ~160kt cut at
Nyrstar Balen. Boliden's Norwegian and Finnish zinc smelters and Bulgaria's KCM smelter also curtailed at
times of peak electricity pricing
(European non-ferrous metals CEO letter to the European Commission, 6 Sep 2022).
Macquarie estimated that energy costs had risen to roughly 80% of European zinc production costs by
August 2022, up from a historical average of 50%
(Reuters, 17 Aug 2022).
Current status (July 2026):
Budel and Auby have both returned to variable-rate operation, but EU zinc smelter capacity remains
structurally below its pre-crisis baseline, and Nordenham's restart status continues to depend on
electricity-market conditions. European smelters remain the highest-cost tier of the global cost curve,
making them the first to cut when treatment charges are also depressed (see Section 2).
Watch: EU electricity price trends into winter 2026–27, further indirect cost
compensation decisions by national governments, Glencore and Nyrstar quarterly production reports.
Last updated: 2026-07-06
Trafigura's Nyrstar Problem: Impairments, Restructuring and the Limits of Vertical Integration
Trafigura booked USD 340.5 million of fixed-asset impairment charges in FY2025 tied in
part to Nyrstar Australia and the Myra Falls zinc mine, on top of USD 1,074 million of total impairments
across the group in FY2024 — a direct financial consequence of the smelter closures and
commodity-cycle pressure documented in Section 1.
Trafigura took majority control of Nyrstar in 2019 through a debt-for-equity restructuring, giving the
trading house direct exposure to zinc smelting margins rather than just concentrate trading
(Mining.com, 15 Apr 2019;
Reuters, 15 Apr 2019).
That integration strategy was tested severely by the 2021–2024 European energy crisis: with
European smelters running at negative or near-zero margins for extended periods (Section 1) and global
treatment charges collapsing to record lows and even negative territory by late 2024 (Section 3),
Nyrstar's European assets became a persistent drag on Trafigura's group results.
Nyrstar's own corporate vehicle, Nyrstar NV (the Belgian-listed legacy entity, distinct from the
operating business Trafigura controls), has separately disclosed an ongoing restructuring involving a
EUR 13.5 million funding facility split between an operating-costs tranche (EUR 8.5 million) and a
litigation-defence-costs tranche (EUR 5 million), with mandatory repayment triggers tied to any future
disposal of its stake in "NN2 NewCo Ltd" — the entity structure underlying the group's operating
assets (Nyrstar NV Investor FAQs).
Trafigura's FY2025 annual results confirm the financial toll continuing into the current period: group
impairments of fixed and financial assets were USD 843 million, down from USD 1,074 million in FY2024,
but the company specifically flagged "fixed asset impairment charges totalling USD 340.5 million, in
relation to Nyrstar Australia, Myra Falls mining, Greenergy's closure of its Immingham plant and a number
of other assets"
(Trafigura, 2025 Annual Results Financial Review, 9 Dec 2025).
Myra Falls, a zinc-copper mine on Vancouver Island, Canada, that Trafigura had targeted as a Western
concentrate source to feed its own smelters, is a direct casualty of the same margin compression
squeezing miners and smelters simultaneously — low metal prices and negative treatment charges
erode profitability at both ends of the supply chain at once.
Why it matters: Nyrstar is one of the few remaining vertically integrated zinc majors
with both Western mining and Western smelting assets, making its financial health a bellwether for
whether non-Chinese zinc smelting can remain viable without structural government support. The
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and other European institutions
have been the subject of industry lobbying for critical-minerals-linked support mechanisms for
EU-based base-metals smelters, though no EBRD facility specific to Nyrstar's European smelters has been
publicly confirmed as of mid-2026; the clearest government intervention to date has been the temporary
Dutch indirect-cost-compensation reinstatement that enabled Budel's 2024 restart (Section 1).
Current status (July 2026):
Trafigura continues to absorb impairments tied to Nyrstar's mining and smelting assets. Myra Falls
remains under review. No fresh EBRD facility specific to Nyrstar's zinc smelters has been publicly
announced. Watch: Trafigura's FY2026 results (due December 2026) for further Nyrstar
impairments or a disposal decision, Myra Falls operational status, any EU or national state-aid package
for base-metals smelting under the Critical Raw Materials Act framework.
Last updated: 2026-07-06
Treatment Charges in Freefall: How a $274/t Fee Became Negative in 18 Months
The Teck Resources–Korea Zinc annual benchmark treatment charge collapsed from $274/tonne
for 2023 shipments to $165/t for 2024 and just $80/t for 2025 — a 71% cumulative fall, and
per consultancy CRU, the lowest rate in at least half a century — while Chinese spot treatment
charges turned outright negative for the first time on record in August 2024.
| Period | Benchmark / spot TC | Note |
| 2023 annual benchmark | $274/t | Teck–Korea Zinc settlement |
| Jan 2024 spot, cif China | ~$30–50/t (falling through year) | Fastmarkets, 9 May 2024 |
| 2024 annual benchmark | $165/t | Teck–Korea Zinc, down 40% YoY (Reuters/Kitco, 9 Apr 2024) |
| 2 Aug 2024, cif China spot | $(10)–(40)/t | First sustained negative readings on record (Fastmarkets via Vinachem, 3 Oct 2024) |
| 25 Oct 2024, cif China spot | $(50)–(20)/t | Lowest since Fastmarkets began tracking in Sep 2014 (Fastmarkets, 30 Oct 2024) |
| 2025 annual benchmark | $80/t | Teck–Korea Zinc, down another 51% YoY, lowest in ~50 years per CRU (Reuters (Andy Home), 8 Apr 2025) |
| Feb 2025, cif China spot | $0–30/t | First positive reading since May 2024 (Fastmarkets, 24 Feb 2025) |
| May 2025, imported spot | $45/dmt | SMM Zn50 index (International Lead and Zinc Study Group — TC benchmarks) |
| Mid-July 2025, spot | ~$73.75/t | Boosted by Kipushi (DRC) and Ozernoye (Russia) ramp-up (Zincop Metals, 23 Jul 2025) |
| 2026 annual benchmark | ~$80/t (est.) | Per Rzzro Intelligence, a ten-year low, one-third of the 2024 figure |
The mechanism at work is textbook but the magnitude was unprecedented: treatment charges (TCs) are the
fee miners pay smelters to convert concentrate into refined metal, and they move inversely with
concentrate scarcity. Wood Mackenzie data presented to the International Lead and Zinc Study
Group (ILZSG) in September 2024 showed the realized annual China domestic TC (including price
participation) falling from over $300/t in 2020–21 to the $165/t benchmark, itself 30% below 2023,
and warned that "almost 10% of rest-of-world (excluding China) zinc smelters suffer cash margin loss at
benchmark TC of $165/t"
(Wood Mackenzie presentation to ILZSG, Sep 2024).
By August 2024, SMM estimated Chinese smelter losses (excluding by-product credits) had exceeded
2,500 yuan/tonne
(Shanghai Metals Market, 23 Aug 2024).
The proximate cause was a run of mine-supply disruptions rather than a demand shock: Reuters reported in
October 2024 that "in April, ILZSG had predicted a 0.7% increase in mine production for 2024" but that
this was revised to a 1.4% decline, and that sanctions-related delays at Russia's Ozernoye mine (see
Section 6) directly contributed to the miscalculation, pushing what had been forecast as a 56,000-tonne
annual surplus into what was briefly expected to be a 164,000-tonne deficit
(Reuters, 9 Oct 2024;
International Lead & Zinc Study Group (ILZSG)).
BofA Securities noted that operators remained "profitable on 2024 annual contracts" but were
"loss-making if they procure feedstock on the spot market"
(Investing.com citing BofA Securities, 28 Aug 2024).
Recovery through 2025–2026 as new mine supply arrives
The squeeze began easing once Kipushi (DRC, Ivanhoe Mines) and Ozernoye (Russia) ramped concentrate
output, alongside the restart of Ireland's Tara mine and higher output from Australia, Peru, and China.
ILZSG's October 2025 press release recorded world zinc mine production rising 4.6% to 12.51 million
tonnes in 2025 after declines in both 2023 and 2024, with a further 2.4% rise to 12.80 million tonnes
forecast for 2026
(ILZSG press release, 13 Oct 2025).
Fastmarkets and StoneX both expect the 2026 benchmark TC to climb back toward the $150–160/t range
as new mine supply reaches the market, though the pace depends heavily on how quickly greenfield projects
ramp to nameplate capacity
(Rzzro Intelligence, 10 Jun 2026).
Current status (July 2026):
Spot and annual TCs have partially recovered from the 2024 trough but remain historically low relative
to the pre-2023 range, and Rzzro Intelligence's June 2026 reporting notes Western smelters "warning that
production cuts are imminent if the economics do not improve," with 2025 spot TCs having fallen to
$20–40/dmt versus roughly $280/dmt in early 2024
(
Rzzro Intelligence, 29 Jun 2026).
Watch: the 2027 Teck–Korea Zinc annual benchmark negotiation (typically finalized
Q1), ILZSG's next quarterly concentrate-market bulletins, ramp-up trajectories at Kipushi and Ozernoye.
Last updated: 2026-07-06
Global Supply: China's Smelting Dominance Versus a Fragmented Mining Base
China accounts for roughly one-third of global mine production (4.1 million of 13.0 million
tonnes in 2025e) but close to half of global refined zinc output — a structural asymmetry
that makes Chinese smelter-utilization decisions, not just Chinese mine output, the single biggest swing
factor in the world zinc balance.
| Country | Mine production 2024 (kt) | Mine production 2025e (kt) | Reserves (kt) |
| China | 4,000 | 4,100 | 60,000 |
| Peru | 1,270 | 1,500 | 18,000 |
| Australia | 1,100 | 1,100 | 164,000 |
| India | 870 | 870 | 10,000 |
| Mexico | 773 | 780 | 14,000 |
| United States | 759 | 670 | 9,300 |
| Russia | 310 | 430 | 29,000 |
| Bolivia | 512 | 500 | NA |
| Kazakhstan | 380 | 360 | 7,400 |
| Sweden | 239 | 230 | 4,100 |
| Other countries | 1,730 | 2,000 | 25,000 |
| World total (rounded) | 11,900 | 13,000 | 240,000 |
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, zinc chapter.
Global identified zinc resources are estimated at approximately 1.9 billion tons, and Australia's
Joint Ore Reserves Committee-compliant reserves are separately reported at 19 million tons, materially
below the 164-million-ton figure USGS carries under its own reserve definitions
(USGS MCS 2026).
U.S. mine production down 12% as Red Dog ages out
USGS attributes an estimated 12% decline in U.S. zinc mine production in 2025 "mostly
owing to a decrease in production at the Red Dog Mine in Alaska owing to lower ore grades as the
operation approached the end of its mine life," while operations at the Middle Tennessee zinc mines have
been suspended since November 2023, with drilling during the closure aimed at defining additional zinc,
germanium, and gallium resources. Domestic project development includes the restart of the Bunker Hill
Mine in Idaho and the opening of the Hermosa project in Arizona
(USGS MCS 2026).
U.S. net import reliance for refined zinc stood at 73% in 2025, with refined-metal imports sourced
56% from Canada, 15% from Mexico, 9% from Peru, and 7% from Korea
(USGS MCS 2026).
China's domestic mine slowdown squeezes its own smelters
China's refined zinc output has been volatile even as its smelting capacity keeps expanding: Discovery
Alert's July 2025 analysis of Chinese producer data shows refined output growth of roughly 1.2% in 2023
turning into a 3.6% decline in 2024, followed by a further roughly 3% year-on-year reduction in the first
five months of 2025 (2.92 million tonnes total), as domestic mine concentrate could not keep pace with
installed smelting capacity
(International Lead and Zinc Study Group — Statistics).
By 2025, however, ILZSG's February 2026 press release recorded a rebound: global refined zinc output
rose 2.1% in 2025, "driven largely by China, where output climbed 6.1%, while refined production outside
China fell 1.6%," and global mine production increased 5.4%, led by Australia, China, India, Iran, Peru,
South Africa, and the DRC, plus European gains from the restart of Ireland's Tara mine
(Miningreporters.com summarizing ILZSG, 26 Feb 2026).
ILZSG balance: deficit years give way to a projected surplus
ILZSG's October 2025 outlook forecasts global refined zinc demand rising 1.1% to 13.71 million tonnes in
2025 and 1% to 13.86 million tonnes in 2026, against refined production of 13.80 million tonnes in 2025
(up 2.7%) and 14.13 million tonnes in 2026 (up a further 2.4%), implying the market moves from deficit in
2023–2024 to a modest 2025 surplus and a larger 271,000-tonne surplus in 2026
(ILZSG press release, 13 Oct 2025;
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 — Zinc).
USGS's own February 2026 assessment converges on a similar figure: an 85,000-tonne production-to-consumption
surplus for 2025, "mostly owing to the commissioning of a significant amount of refining capacity in
China"
(USGS MCS 2026).
Current status (July 2026):
Supply has stabilized markedly from the 2024 deficit scare, with ILZSG and USGS both projecting
surpluses through 2026 as Chinese and ex-China smelting capacity absorbs the recovering concentrate
supply. The structural risk remains geographic concentration: China alone accounts for roughly a third
of mine supply and is closing in on half of refined output, meaning any renewed Chinese mine slowdown
would immediately reproduce the 2024 treatment-charge crisis. Watch: USGS MCS 2027 zinc
chapter (Feb 2027), ILZSG quarterly bulletins, Red Dog and Middle Tennessee mine-life updates.
Last updated: 2026-07-06
The 2025 LME Zinc Squeeze: Stocks Fall 85%, Backwardation Hits the Widest Since 1997
LME zinc warehouse stocks collapsed from roughly 230,000 tonnes in January 2025 to as low as
24,425 tonnes by 21 October 2025 — an 85%-plus drawdown — while the cash-to-3-month
spread blew out to a record $323 per tonne backwardation, the widest since LME records
began in 1997, with six entities holding long positions equal to more than 300% of available warehouse
stock.
The mechanics of the squeeze differed from the smoother stock declines of prior years. Throughout 2024,
Reuters columnist Andy Home noted, nearly 700,000 tonnes of zinc were shuttled in and out of Singapore
LME warehouses under "rent-sharing" arrangements between trading houses and warehouse operators, leaving
the net inventory change a modest 35,550-tonne increase despite the heavy churn. Starting in early 2025,
that pattern broke: "zinc was being withdrawn from LME registered stocks without reappearing in
off-warrant reserves ready for new warranting at alternative warehouses"
(Reuters (Andy Home), 22 Oct 2025).
Singapore customs data showed SHG zinc ingot exports surging past 50,000 tonnes in August 2025 alone, with
seven-month 2025 exports of 189,700 tonnes already exceeding all of 2024's 154,500 tonnes, while imports
fell 81.3% year-on-year — metal was leaving the LME system for good rather than recirculating
(Shanghai Metals Market, 27 Oct 2025).
| Date | LME zinc stock / spread | Detail |
| Early Jan 2025 | ~230,000t total stock | Baseline before the drawdown |
| Aug 2025 | 50,825t registered; 45,700t available | Two-year low at the time; Cash-3M near flat contango (Reuters, 13 Aug 2025) |
| 21 Oct 2025 | Cash-3M spread: $323/t backwardation | Widest since at least 1997 (Bloomberg, 21 Oct 2025) |
| 22 Oct 2025 | 34,700t total; 24,850t on-warrant | 85% down YTD; barely one day of global demand (Reuters, 22 Oct 2025) |
| Nov 2025 | Cash-3M spread: ~$130/t | Partial cooling but still 6–13x historical norm (LME Zinc — contract specifications and pricing) |
| Dec 2025 | Stocks rebuild toward ~100,000–110,000t | Surge in deliveries to LME as 2026 surplus expectations build (Reuters, 9 Jan 2026) |
| Jan 2026 | Cash trades at backwardation to 3M forward | Physical tightness persisting even as SHFE stocks build (market commentary, 26 Jan 2026) |
The concentration data underpinning the squeeze was unusually stark. LME position reports for 18 July
2025 showed "investment firms and credit institutions" holding 57.41% of total open interest, and
Shanghai Metals Market's analysis of the July 2025 rally described a "surge in cancelled warrants" from
under 20% to roughly 50% of total LME zinc inventory in a single week, which it linked to "a small number
of participants...accumulating long positions in front-month contracts while controlling a significant
proportion of the cancelled warrants" — a pattern SMM explicitly compared to "one major trader"
who in October 2024 "reportedly held over 40% of recent-month zinc open interest and stockpiled 50–80%
of LME zinc warrants"
(Shanghai Metals Market, 23 Jul 2025).
By 21 October 2025, LME data confirmed "the top six entities with long positions in near-term contracts
are collectively holding more than 300% of the available stock in LME warehouses," while the tom-next
spread — the cost of rolling a short position by a single day — spiked to $30/tonne, matching
the highest level since the 2022 nickel-era base-metals squeeze cycle
(Mining.com, 21 Oct 2025).
Why it matters: the squeeze occurred despite ILZSG projecting a 271,000-tonne global
surplus for 2026 — a reminder that LME registered stock is a narrow, geographically specific pool
(dominated by Singapore) that can diverge sharply from the true global physical balance. Marex strategist
Al Munro observed that "the reality is the backwardations on the LME are yet to attract material and
stock inflows," underscoring that high prices alone did not immediately solve the delivery-point
shortage (Mining.com, 21 Oct 2025).
Current status (July 2026):
LME zinc stocks rebuilt into the 100,000+ tonne range by December 2025 as deliveries responded to the
backwardation, and the market is now oriented toward the 2026 ILZSG-projected surplus, though residual
backwardation persisted into January 2026. Watch: LME daily warrant-concentration
disclosures, Singapore warehouse flow data, whether the 2026 surplus materializes as forecast or is again
revised away by a supply disruption.
Last updated: 2026-07-06
The Producers: Hindustan Zinc's Expansion Bet, Sanctioned Ozernoye, and the Mid-Tier Miners
Hindustan Zinc (Vedanta) is investing up to USD 2–2.5 billion to roughly double capacity to
2 million tonnes per year by 2030, while Russia's sanctioned Ozernoye project — designed
to supply 4% of world zinc output at full capacity — only began concentrate production in September
2024 after a fire and Western sanctions delayed it by nearly two years.
1. Hindustan Zinc: India's integrated silver-lead-zinc champion doubles down
Hindustan Zinc, majority owned by Vedanta Limited, announced plans in October 2024 to invest up to
USD 2 billion (later reported as up to USD 2.5 billion) to double its production capacity, targeting
milestones of 1.2 million tonnes in 2025, 1.35 million tonnes in 2026, and 1.8 million tonnes in 2027 en
route to an ultimate 2-million-tonne goal by 2030
(Economic Times, 27 Oct 2024;
IndiaInfoline, 27 Oct 2024).
In June 2025 the company committed roughly INR 12,000 crore (about USD 1.4 billion) toward a new smelter
in Rajasthan as part of that expansion
(Business Standard, 17 Jun 2025).
By April 2026, Hindustan Zinc was reportedly still targeting the 2030 doubling and separately
considering reviving a demerger plan for its businesses
(Economic Times, 25 Apr 2026).
The company's integrated model recovers silver and lead alongside zinc from the same ore bodies at its
Rajasthan operations, and Vedanta's FY2025 operational review confirms Hindustan Zinc is separately
developing a prototype rechargeable zinc-air battery with IIT Madras and JNCASR
(Vedanta Limited, FY2025 Operational Review).
Parent company Vedanta was separately reported in April 2025 to be seeking a global partner for a
broader USD 20 billion group expansion plan
(Reuters, 2 Apr 2025).
2. Ozernoye: Russia's largest zinc mine, built under sanctions
Ozernoye, in Siberia's Buryatia region, was designed to produce up to 350,000 tonnes of zinc in
concentrate annually — enough, according to Russia's Minister for the Far East and Arctic Aleksey
Chekunkov, to represent 4% of global output at full capacity
(Mining.com, 12 Dec 2023).
The United States sanctioned the project's owner, metals magnate Vladislav Sviblov, along with Ozernaya
Mining Company itself, in December 2023, following earlier UK sanctions on Sviblov in November 2023
(Mining.com, 12 Dec 2023).
A fire in November 2023 damaged imported processing equipment, and the sanctions then "made it hard to
find a replacement abroad," delaying first concentrate production until at least Q3 2024 and full
ramp-up until 2025
(Reuters via Investing.com, 5 Feb 2024).
Concentrate production finally began in September 2024
(Mining.com, 4 Sep 2024).
Reuters reported in October 2024 that Glencore, which had previously supplied concentrator components,
"can no longer supply the concentrator parts to Ozernoye" because of the U.S. sanctions, forcing the
project to find alternative equipment sources and directly contributing to the 2024 global TC crisis
documented in Section 3
(Reuters, 25 Oct 2024).
The sanctions have also structurally reoriented Ozernoye's customer base toward China, "cementing its
dependence on future demand in top consumer China"
(Reuters via Investing.com, 5 Feb 2024).
3. MMG's Dugald River and the mid-tier Australian/mid-cap producer base
MMG's Dugald River mine in Queensland, Australia, targeted 2025 zinc-in-concentrate production of
170,000–185,000 tonnes, described by the company as "a return to previous production levels," with
C1 costs guided at USD 0.75–0.90/lb, higher than 2024 owing to lower assumed by-product prices and
higher assumed zinc treatment charges
(MMG Fourth Quarter Production Report, 23 Jan 2025).
MMG's Rosebery mine in Tasmania guided 2025 zinc production of 45,000–55,000 tonnes (110,000–125,000
tonnes zinc-equivalent including by-products), with the company noting a deliberate "shift in focus
towards by-product production" given the weak treatment-charge environment
(MMG, 23 Jan 2025).
MMG's own commentary in its Q1 2024 production report explicitly linked "additional disruptions in zinc
mine production and mine closures worldwide" to treatment charges "trading between a US$55–$75 per
tonne level," and confirmed the Teck–Korea Zinc 2024 benchmark settlement at $165/t, "a significant
decrease from the 2023 annual zinc concentrate benchmark treatment charge of US$274 per tonne"
(MMG First Quarter Production Report, 23 Apr 2024).
Boliden (Sweden/Finland/Norway) and Nexa Resources (Brazil/Peru) round
out the mid-tier producer base referenced across ILZSG and USGS country-level statistics in Sections 3
and 4; Boliden's Nordic smelters were among those curtailing output during the 2022 European energy
crisis (Section 1), while Nexa's Peruvian and Brazilian mines contribute to the Peru and Brazil
production figures behind the 2025 mine-supply recovery. Neither company disclosed metal-specific
restructuring or sanctions events of the scale seen at Nyrstar or Ozernoye during the period covered by
this review; their production trends track the broader country-level statistics already cited from
USGS and ILZSG in Sections 3–4.
Current status (July 2026):
Hindustan Zinc's expansion program remains on its multi-year build-out track toward 2 million tonnes by
2030. Ozernoye remains under U.S. and UK sanctions, operating but oriented toward Chinese offtake.
MMG's Dugald River and Rosebery mines continue to actively manage by-product mix in response to
depressed treatment charges. Watch: Hindustan Zinc capacity-milestone updates, any
OFAC/UK Treasury amendments to the Ozernoye/Sviblov sanctions listings, MMG's 2026 full-year production
report.
Last updated: 2026-07-06
Demand Side: Galvanized Steel Remains King, With Renewables as the Marginal Growth Driver
Galvanized steel is the single largest end use of refined zinc, consumed predominantly
in automotive and construction applications in the United States, while the International Zinc
Association identifies renewable-energy infrastructure — wind towers and solar mounting structures
— as an incremental, fast-growing demand category layered on top of that traditional base.
1. Galvanizing: automotive and construction anchor the market
USGS confirms that "of the total reported zinc consumed" in the United States, "most was used to produce
galvanized steel, followed by brass and bronze, zinc-base alloys, and other uses," and separately states
that "galvanized steel was the leading use of refined zinc in the United States, which was used widely in
the automobile and construction end markets"
(USGS MCS 2026).
Zinc's role in automotive galvanizing is protective corrosion coating for structural steel and outer body
panels, and in construction spans structural steel, rebar, guardrails, and roofing. Industry market
research on the global galvanized steel market continues to project multi-year growth through the early
2030s, driven by infrastructure investment and vehicle-production trends, though as USGS notes the
largest single U.S. use case remains automotive and construction galvanizing rather than any single
emerging application
(Grand View Research, Galvanized Steel Market Report).
2. Renewable energy: wind towers and solar mounting as the growth wedge
The International Zinc Association identifies renewable energy infrastructure explicitly as a use case
for galvanized zinc coatings, citing the corrosion-protection requirements of wind turbine towers and
the structural steel supporting solar installations, both of which require multi-decade service life in
outdoor, often coastal or exposed environments where zinc's sacrificial corrosion protection is
well-established
(International Zinc Association, Renewable Energy).
Zinc-aluminium-magnesium (Zn-Al-Mg) coated steel in particular has been marketed as an upgrade over pure
zinc or aluminum coatings for solar racking and mounting structures, with suppliers citing improved
long-term corrosion resistance in the field after industry events such as SNEC 2026
(Art Sign Energy, solar mounting steel commentary, 2026).
CRU Group's analysis frames renewables broadly — wind, solar, and the broader electricity
infrastructure buildout — as a structural net positive for zinc demand over the medium term, even
as growth rates in mature end markets like construction remain slower
(CRU Group, Zinc demand to benefit from growth in renewables).
3. China's construction slowdown as a demand-side drag
China's own zinc demand is closely tied to its construction sector, which Reuters described as having "had
a patchy post-pandemic recovery" — a demand-side headwind that compounds the supply-side story of
Chinese smelter overcapacity documented in Section 4
(Reuters via Investing.com, 5 Feb 2024).
Because China is both the largest zinc producer and the largest zinc consumer, weakness in Chinese
property and infrastructure construction directly affects the global galvanizing demand base that
underpins roughly half of total zinc consumption, independent of the renewables-driven growth wedge
described above.
Why it matters: unlike some critical minerals where a single emerging application (EV
batteries, semiconductors) is reshaping the entire demand picture, zinc's demand structure remains
dominated by a century-old use case — corrosion-resistant galvanized steel — that scales with
global steel production, automotive output, and construction activity. This makes zinc demand less
volatile but also less exposed to the kind of geopolitically driven demand surge seen in battery-metal
markets; the more significant swing factor for zinc prices has been supply-side disruption (Sections 1–3
and 6), not a step-change in demand.
Current status (July 2026):
Galvanized steel for automotive and construction remains the dominant U.S. and global end use per USGS.
Renewable-energy infrastructure (wind towers, solar mounting) is a genuine but still secondary growth
driver relative to the core galvanizing base. Watch: Chinese property-sector data as a
leading indicator for Chinese zinc demand, global vehicle-production trends, USGS's next apparent
consumption breakdown by end use.
Last updated: 2026-07-06
Beyond the Smelter: Recycling Infrastructure, Zinc-Based Batteries, and ESG Exposure
Eos Energy's zinc-bromine Z3 battery system won a USD 305.3 million U.S. Department of Energy
loan guarantee in November 2024 to build manufacturing capacity, while EAF dust (electric arc
furnace dust) recycling through Waelz kilns remains the dominant secondary-zinc recovery route feeding
roughly 25–30% of world zinc supply from recycled sources across the value chain.
1. Recycling: EAF dust and the Waelz kiln as the secondary-zinc backbone
Refined zinc produced in the United States is recovered from secondary materials at both primary and
secondary smelters, and per USGS "these secondary materials included galvanizing residues and crude
zinc oxide recovered from electric arc furnace dust"
(USGS MCS 2026).
Electric arc furnaces used in steel recycling volatilize the zinc coating on galvanized steel scrap into
a zinc-rich flue dust; this EAF dust is classified as a hazardous waste in most jurisdictions because of
associated heavy metals, and the standard industrial recovery route is the Waelz kiln
process, in which EAF dust is combined with a carbon reductant and processed in a rotary kiln to produce
Waelz oxide, a crude zinc oxide concentrate (60–65% zinc) that is then further refined
(Waelz process overview;
Materials journal, Recovery of Zinc and Iron from Steel Mill Dust, 2022).
The International Lead and Zinc Study Group has published dedicated technical material on zinc recovery
from EAF dust, describing it as "a significant source of secondary zinc" for the global industry
(ILZSG, Zinc Recovery from EAF Dust).
This recycling loop is structurally tied to the galvanized-steel demand base itself: every tonne of
galvanized automotive or construction steel that is eventually recycled through an EAF becomes a future
zinc feedstock source, making the Waelz-kiln route a long-lag but reliable secondary supply channel
distinct from primary mine concentrate.
2. Zinc-based batteries: Eos, EnZinc, and the lead-acid replacement thesis
Eos Energy Enterprises (Nasdaq: EOSE) manufactures zinc-bromine battery energy storage
systems under its Znyth chemistry, targeting long-duration (3–12 hour) utility, industrial, and
commercial applications as an alternative to lithium-ion, describing its technology as "safe, scalable,
efficient, sustainable, manufactured in the U.S."
(Eos Energy Enterprises press release, 28 May 2025).
In November 2024, the U.S. Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office closed an up to USD 305.3 million
loan guarantee (USD 277.5 million principal plus USD 26 million capitalized interest) to finance two
manufacturing lines for Eos's next-generation Z3 zinc-bromine battery system in Turtle Creek,
Pennsylvania, with all four planned lines expected to manufacture over 8 GWh of annual storage capacity
by 2026–2027 — enough to instantaneously power more than 300,000 average U.S. homes
(U.S. Department of Energy, Loan Programs Office, Eos project summary).
Eos reported its highest-ever quarterly revenue in Q3 2025 and guided full-year 2025 revenue of
USD 150–160 million
(Eos Energy Enterprises, Q3 2025 results, 5 Nov 2025),
and in October 2025 announced a 228 MWh order with Frontier Power under a broader 5 GWh framework
agreement
(Eos Energy/Frontier Power announcement, 31 Oct 2025).
EnZinc (Richmond, California) pursues a different architecture: a patented zinc
"microsponge" anode designed as a drop-in upgrade for existing lead-acid battery manufacturing lines,
producing nickel-zinc batteries that the company says triple the effective output of a converted
lead-acid factory while eliminating the dendrite formation that historically made rechargeable zinc
batteries impractical
(EnZinc corporate site;
ASME, Zinc is proving stubborn in efforts to improve on lithium-ion batteries).
In October 2025, EnZinc announced a Joint Development Agreement with an unnamed major lead-acid battery
manufacturer to bring its "Enzinc Inside" nickel-zinc technology to market, following a California Energy
Commission-funded project (Publication CEC-500-2024-092) that the Commission said "successfully achieved
its objectives, including the development of a large format commercial-size zinc sponge anode, a
nickel-zinc cell, a nickel-zinc stationary energy storage battery, and a zinc anode fabrication line"
(Octet Scientific, Aqueous Battery Brief, 23 Oct 2025;
California Energy Commission, CEC-500-2024-092).
Why it matters, and why it's still nascent: both Eos and EnZinc target the lead-acid and
stationary-storage markets rather than the much larger EV lithium-ion market, meaning zinc-based battery
demand is not yet a material draw on refined zinc supply relative to the 13.7-million-tonne global
galvanizing-dominated market. Eos's 2025 revenue guidance of USD 150–160 million implies a
battery-grade zinc consumption footprint that remains a rounding error against global refined output,
even as the technology matures. The genuine long-term upside case is a partial displacement of the
USD 50–77 billion global lead-acid battery market, which EnZinc has cited directly as its target
opportunity (Tamarindo, 4 Dec 2023).
3. ESG exposure: cadmium as a toxic byproduct, tailings dams as the structural mining risk
Zinc ore bodies, particularly sphalerite deposits, frequently contain cadmium as a minor but toxic
associated element that must be separated during refining; cadmium recovered from zinc processing is
itself an internationally regulated hazardous byproduct requiring dedicated handling, and a global
mineral-resource assessment of cadmium published in Environmental Research Letters frames cadmium supply
as fundamentally a function of zinc-mining and zinc-refining decisions rather than dedicated cadmium
mining
(Werner et al., Environmental Research Letters, Cadmium: a global assessment of mineral resources, 2024).
Canada's federal government has published a formal risk-management scope document for zinc and soluble
zinc compounds, stating the environmental objective is "to reduce anthropogenic releases of zinc and
soluble zinc compounds to water so as not to exceed levels observed to cause adverse effects to aquatic
organisms," reflecting zinc's own status as a regulated aquatic contaminant at elevated concentrations
despite being a biologically essential trace element at low doses
(Environment and Climate Change Canada, Risk Management Scope for Zinc).
Tailings dam integrity is a sector-wide structural risk for all sulphide-ore base-metals mining,
including zinc-lead-silver operations, not a zinc-specific hazard; peer-reviewed geochemical research on
lead/zinc mine tailings has specifically documented "the geochemical and mineralogical controls on the
release characteristics of potentially toxic elements" from these tailings, underscoring that the same
polymetallic ore bodies that make zinc mining economically attractive (silver, lead, cadmium as
by-products) also concentrate the toxic-release risk in tailings storage facilities
(Science of the Total Environment, geochemical controls on Pb/Zn mine tailings, 2022).
BHP's own public ESG briefing on tailings dams — while not zinc-specific — documents the
industry-wide governance response following catastrophic failures elsewhere in the sector, a framework
that applies equally to zinc-lead-silver tailings facilities operated by companies such as Hindustan
Zinc, Boliden, and MMG
(BHP, ESG briefing: Tailings dams, 2019).
Current status (July 2026):
EAF dust recycling via Waelz kilns remains the established, scaled secondary-zinc pathway; zinc-based
batteries (Eos, EnZinc) are commercially real but still a small fraction of total zinc demand, targeting
lead-acid replacement and long-duration grid storage rather than the dominant galvanizing market.
Cadmium byproduct handling and tailings dam governance remain the two most material ESG exposures across
the zinc mining and refining value chain. Watch: Eos and EnZinc 2026 order-book and
production updates, any new global tailings-dam standard adoption by major zinc-lead-silver producers,
ILZSG/USGS future updates on the recycled share of total zinc supply.