Last updated: 2026-07-06
China Export Controls: From Licensing to Outright Ban, 2023–2026
China controls ~99% of global primary low-purity gallium refining.
In August 2023, Beijing imposed licensing controls on gallium exports; by December 2024,
it moved to an outright ban on shipments to the United States
(
USGS MCS 2026).
On 3 July 2023, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and General Administration
of Customs jointly issued Announcement No. 23 of 2023, imposing dual-use export
licensing on eight gallium-related items (metallic gallium, gallium nitride, gallium oxide,
gallium phosphide, gallium arsenide, indium gallium arsenide, gallium selenide, gallium antimonide)
and six germanium-related items, effective 1 August 2023
(MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 23, 2023).
Exporters must now submit end-user certificates and obtain provincial and MOFCOM approval before
any shipment leaves China
(Mayer Brown, Jul 2023).
The initial shock was immediate: China's gallium exports fell to 227 kg in August 2023,
versus 7,965 kg in July 2023 — a near-total halt while exporters awaited licenses
(compiled trade data, 2023–2025).
Rotterdam 4N (99.99%) gallium prices spiked 43% within one month of the announcement
(CSIS, Jul 2025).
On 3 December 2024, MOFCOM escalated with Announcement No. 46 of 2024,
prohibiting the export of dual-use items to any U.S. military end-user, and stating that
“in principle” export licenses for gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials
to the United States would not be granted — a presumption-of-denial rule with
an extraterritorial clause targeting third-country transshipment
(CSET translation of MOFCOM Announcement No. 46).
On 2 January 2025, MOFCOM further added gallium-extraction technologies
(ion-exchange and resin methods for recovering gallium from bauxite mother liquor) to its
controlled technology catalogue, closing off transfer of the know-how itself
(CSIS, Jul 2025).
On 9 November 2025, following the Trump-Xi Busan summit, MOFCOM issued
Announcement No. 72 of 2025, suspending the second clause of Announcement No. 46
— the presumption-of-denial ban on gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the
United States — until 27 November 2026. The prohibition on exports to U.S.
military end-users remains in force and unaffected by the suspension
(Pillsbury Law, Nov 2025).
Why it matters: Gallium underpins gallium arsenide (GaAs) and gallium nitride (GaN)
semiconductors used in radar, electronic warfare, satellite solar cells and 5G infrastructure. The
United States is 100% import-reliant for gallium
(USGS MCS 2026),
and USGS estimated in November 2024 that a full Chinese export ban on gallium and germanium could
cost the U.S. economy $3.4 billion in GDP
(USGS estimate cited in ThinkChina, Apr 2026).
Current status (July 2026):
The U.S.-specific presumption-of-denial ban is suspended until 27 November 2026
under Announcement No. 72/2025, but the underlying 2023 licensing regime remains in force worldwide
and, per Chinese customs data, direct exports of unwrought gallium to the United States have not
meaningfully resumed. Watch: MOFCOM licensing volumes, potential re-imposition or
permanent shift at the November 2026 review.
Last updated: 2026-07-06
Price Movement: A Structural Split Between China and the West
Gallium 4N (99.99%) in-warehouse Rotterdam rose from roughly
$300–$500/kg in mid-2023 to a peak near
$2,925/kg in June 2026
— while Chinese domestic ex-works prices stayed near
$250–$400/kg
throughout the same period
(
Fastmarkets, cited Jun 2026).
| Date | Rotterdam / Western price | China domestic price | Trigger |
| Jun 2023 | — | $240/kg | Pre-controls baseline |
| Aug 2023 | +43% within one month | — | MOFCOM 2023/23 announced |
| Jun 2024 | — | $380/kg (+58% YoY) | Licensing regime maturing |
| Oct 2024 | — | $420/kg | Pre-ban tightening |
| Dec 2024 | Record highs since 2011 | ~$300/kg | MOFCOM 2024/46 US export ban |
| May 2025 | $687/kg (+150% vs pre-control) | ~$250/kg | Post-ban Western scarcity |
| Oct 2025 | $1,247/kg (+33% YTD) | $233/kg (435% premium) | Suspension not yet effective |
| Mar 2026 | $2,101.60/kg (+22% YTD, +123% 12-mo) | ~$247/kg (1,805 CNY/kg) | Structural Western shortage persists |
| 19 Jun 2026 | $2,925/kg (Rotterdam, top of range) | 1,975 CNY/kg (~$277/kg) | Fastmarkets launches new US DDP reference price |
USGS's own average import unit values confirm the divergence at the U.S. border: high-purity
refined gallium import prices moved from $450/kg in 2023 to an estimated
$500/kg in 2024, while low-purity primary gallium import prices fell from
$394/kg (2022) to $220/kg (2024e) as sourcing shifted to non-Chinese, lower-cost suppliers
(USGS MCS 2025).
By late June 2026, Fastmarkets began publishing a dedicated Gallium 99.99% DDP US
reference price at $2,300–$2,500/kg, distinct from the Rotterdam warehouse
price of $2,250–$2,925/kg, reflecting the emergence of a durable U.S. price premium
(Fastmarkets, Jun 2026).
Gallium arsenide (GaAs) wafers — the downstream product most exposed to the controls —
saw U.S. import values fall 50% in 2023 versus 2022 to about $110 million,
before recovering to $140 million in 2024 (+24% YoY) as buyers diversified sourcing
(USGS MCS 2024,
USGS MCS 2025).
GaAs wafer import volumes collapsed from 424,000 kg gross weight in 2022 to just
163,000 kg in 2023, before a modest recovery to 180,000 kg (2024e).
Current status (July 2026):
Western prices remain 8–10x the Chinese domestic benchmark. Fastmarkets' new DDP-US
reference confirms the price split is now structural rather than transitory.
Watch: Fastmarkets and Argus weekly assessments, MOFCOM license issuance data,
USGS MCS 2027 (Feb 2027).
Last updated: 2026-07-06
The US and Allied Response: DPA Title III, Nyrstar, 5N Plus, and Rio Tinto
The Department of War (formerly DoD) and allied governments have funded at least six
distinct gallium and germanium projects since 2020 — spanning Tennessee, Utah,
Louisiana, Montana and Quebec — aimed at building non-Chinese gallium refining capacity.
2 June 2020 — DoD awards a $12.45 million Defense Production
Act Title III contract to 5N Plus Semiconductor Corp (St. George, Utah) to sustain the sole
domestic source of critical semiconductor materials, including gallium, germanium and indium
antimonide, for space defense programs
(Semiconductor Today, Jun 2020).
7 July 2022 — Nyrstar announces plans for a $90 million
expansion of its Clarksville, Tennessee zinc smelter to add germanium and gallium processing
capacity, positioning the site as a potential top domestic source of both metals
(Clarksville Now, Jul 2022).
16 April 2024 — DoD awards $14.4 million via the Defense
Production Act Investment (DPAI) Program to 5N Plus to expand production of space-qualified
germanium substrates for defense and commercial satellite solar cells at its Utah facility
(Semiconductor Today, Apr 2024).
7 May 2025 — Rio Tinto, in partnership with Indium Corporation, announces
successful extraction of the first primary gallium from its alumina refining process
at the Vaudreuil alumina refinery in Sorel-Tracy, Quebec, Canada — a byproduct recovery route
that requires no new mining
(Rio Tinto news release, 7 May 2025).
September 2025 — DoD's DPA Title III program awards $29.9 million
to ElementUSA Inc. (Fort Lauderdale, FL) to build a demonstration facility in Gramercy, Louisiana
extracting gallium and scandium from industrial waste, and $18.5 million to
Lattice Materials (Montana) to expand germanium optics production
(DPA Title III infographic, Dec 2025,
Semiconductor Today, Nov 2025).
2 March 2026 — The Government of Canada provisionally approves a
non-repayable contribution of C$18.95 million (~US$13.86 million) to Rio Tinto
for gallium metal research and development at Sorel-Tracy, supporting scale-up of the
byproduct-recovery process demonstrated in 2025
(Reuters, 2 Mar 2026).
Why it matters: None of these projects individually approaches China's ~900,000–1,000,000 kg/yr
low-purity gallium production capacity
(USGS MCS 2026),
but together they represent the first sustained Western push to build byproduct gallium recovery
from existing zinc and alumina refining infrastructure rather than relying on new mining.
Current status (July 2026):
Rio Tinto Sorel-Tracy and Nyrstar Clarksville are the two most advanced non-Chinese gallium
recovery projects; both remain pre-commercial scale. ElementUSA and Lattice Materials are
early-stage demonstration facilities. Watch: Rio Tinto Sorel-Tracy commercial
production timeline, further DPA Title III awards, Nyrstar Clarksville capital decision.
Gallium itself is never used in pure metallic form in weapons — its strategic value lies in
two compound semiconductors it enables: gallium arsenide (GaAs) and
gallium nitride (GaN). Per
CSIS (Jul 2025),
open-source assessments identify more than 11,000 individual parts across the U.S.
Department of Defense that require gallium, and roughly 85% of defense supply
chains containing gallium include at least one Chinese supplier.
1. GaAs in the F-35's AN/APG-81 AESA radar
The AN/APG-81 Active Electronically Scanned Array,
built by Northrop Grumman for the F-35 Lightning II, uses gallium arsenide transmit/receive
modules to provide simultaneous air-to-air and air-to-ground engagement, electronic warfare,
and high-resolution ground mapping. GaAs remains the incumbent semiconductor for many fielded
AESA arrays, including earlier-generation fighter and surface radars, even as newer programs
transition to GaN.
2. GaN in the Patriot GEM-T and LTAMDS (GhostEye) missile-defense radars
Raytheon (now RTX) has invested more than $200 million over 16+ years developing
military-grade GaN, replacing the Patriot's legacy gallium-arsenide-based traveling-wave-tube radar
with a solid-state GaN Active Electronically Scanned Array
(Defense News, Feb 2016).
The GaN-based AN/MPQ-65A array cut Patriot's annual operations and maintenance costs by up to
50% while enabling 360-degree coverage
(U.S. Army Patriot program documentation).
The Patriot's GEM-T interceptor also received solid-state GaN transmitters in 2018
(CSIS Missile Threat, Feb 2019).
Its successor, the LTAMDS (GhostEye) radar built by RTX for the U.S. Army's
Integrated Air and Missile Defense architecture, uses GaN components to deliver
more than twice the performance of the legacy Patriot radar with 360-degree
detection; the Army placed a $1 billion year-two production order for LTAMDS in
early 2026
(Military Aerospace, Feb 2026).
3. GaN across the wider U.S. radar fleet
Per CSIS (Jul 2025),
GaN-backed modules have been integrated into the Navy's AN/SPY-6 radar, the Marine Corps'
G/ATOR radar, the Army's LTAMDS radar, the Missile Defense Agency's AN/TPY-2 radar, and the
F-35's upgraded AESA radar. GaN transistors operate at higher voltages and temperatures with
lower losses than GaAs, enabling smaller, higher-resolution, longer-range radar modules with
reduced size, weight and power draw.
4. Gallium arsenide solar cells for defense and intelligence satellites
Multi-junction GaAs solar cells offer substantially higher conversion efficiency and radiation
tolerance than silicon, making them the standard power source for national security and
commercial satellites. 5N Plus's DPA Title III-funded Utah facility produces the germanium
substrates on which these GaAs space solar cells are grown, directly feeding
defense and commercial satellite supply chains
(Department of War press release, 29 Jan 2026).
The DoD/Department of War gallium-germanium mobilization (2020–2026):
Current status (July 2026):
GaN is actively displacing GaAs in new radar programs (LTAMDS, upgraded Patriot, SPY-6), while
GaAs remains embedded in the large fielded base (F-35 APG-81, legacy Patriot, satellite solar
cells). Domestic gallium refining capacity remains negligible relative to demand.
Watch: LTAMDS fielding pace, 5N Plus Utah capacity ramp, further DPA Title III
gallium-specific awards.
The United States has never sourced a majority of its gallium directly from China — but
indirect exposure through GaAs wafers, recycled scrap, and third-country intermediaries runs
much deeper than direct trade statistics suggest
(CSIS, Jul 2025).
China's export collapse to the United States, 2023–2026
| Period | Chinese gallium exports | Notes |
| Jul 2023 (pre-controls) | 7,965 kg (monthly) | Baseline before MOFCOM 2023/23 |
| Aug 2023 | 227 kg | −97% MoM after licensing took effect |
| 2022 | Net exports ~159 t (contained gallium, all forms) | USGS mass-balance estimate |
| 2024 full year | 47 t "wrought gallium" exported | Down from 68 t in 2022 (MMTA, Mar 2025) |
| H1 2024 | 19,550 kg gallium metal | Baseline before Dec 2024 ban |
| H1 2025 | 17,748 kg gallium metal (−9.2% YoY) | 73% went to Japan, 13% Germany (Argus Media, Jul 2025) |
| May 2025 | 0 kg | First zero month since Sep 2023 |
| 2025 full year | −94% vs 2024 | Unwrought gallium exports (CSIS, May 2026) |
| Oct 2025 | 15,570 kg | Highest monthly volume since Jun 2022; Germany (10,000 kg) and Japan (5,000 kg) top destinations |
U.S. import sourcing shift
Per Stimson Center (Mar 2025),
U.S. gallium imports overall fell 77% from 2021 to 2024, while direct Chinese
imports fell even further: China's cumulative share of U.S. gallium metal imports dropped from
roughly 53% during 2018–2021 to 18% during 2021–2024. Germany's share of
U.S. gallium imports rose 1,111% between 2022 and 2024, reaching 22% — but
Germany has no primary gallium production and instead recycles semiconductor-manufacturing scrap
that is often ultimately of Chinese-refined origin.
U.S. imports of gallium arsenide wafers from China effectively stopped in April 2025
and have remained at zero since, per ThinkChina analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data (Apr 2026).
GaAs wafer import volumes averaged just ~140,000 kg/year across 2023–2025,
down from 424,000 kg in 2022 alone. Despite this, total U.S. industrial gallium
consumption stayed resilient: 19,700 kg in 2022 versus roughly 19,000 kg
in 2025 (just 3.5% below the 2022 peak), as importers substituted volume from Canada,
Japan, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea and Slovakia.
| Source country (to US) | Trend, 2022→2025 | Note |
| China (direct) | 53% (2018–21 share) → <5% (2025) | Effectively zeroed for GaAs wafers by Apr 2025 |
| Canada | 1.5 t (Jan–Nov 2022) → 5.7 t (Jan–Nov 2024) | Rio Tinto Sorel-Tracy ramp-up (MMTA, Mar 2025) |
| Germany | +1,111% (2022→2024) | Recycled scrap, not primary production |
| Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Slovakia | Increased share | Recycling/secondary refining hubs |
The transshipment and recycling question: per
CSIS (May 2026),
the countries now supplying most gallium and GaAs to the United States — Germany, Japan,
Taiwan, South Korea, Slovakia — do not produce primary gallium. Their exports are derived
largely from recycling semiconductor-manufacturing scrap, meaning the material is still
ultimately traceable to Chinese-refined feedstock further up the supply chain.
Current status (July 2026):
Direct China→US gallium and GaAs trade remains near zero despite the November 2025
suspension of the presumption-of-denial ban. U.S. consumption has stayed resilient through
substitution and recycling, but the underlying dependency on Chinese-refined feedstock persists.
Watch: Chinese customs monthly export data, US Census Bureau import statistics,
USGS MCS 2027 (Feb 2027).
A compact chronology of the events that turned gallium from a niche semiconductor input into
a front line of U.S.-China technology competition. Each entry links to the primary record.
| Date |
Event |
Primary source |
| 2 Jun 2020 |
U.S. DoD awards a $12.45 million Defense Production Act Title III contract
to 5N Plus Semiconductor Corp (Utah) to sustain the sole domestic source of critical
semiconductor materials including gallium and germanium for space defense programs. |
Semiconductor Today |
| 7 Jul 2022 |
Nyrstar announces a planned $90 million expansion of its Clarksville,
Tennessee zinc smelter to add germanium and gallium processing capacity. |
Clarksville Now |
| 3 Jul 2023 |
MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 23 of 2023: China imposes export licensing on
eight gallium-related and six germanium-related items, effective 1 August 2023. |
MOFCOM/GAC Announcement No. 23 |
| Aug 2023 |
Chinese gallium exports collapse to 227 kg, down from 7,965 kg in July
2023, as exporters await MOFCOM licenses. Rotterdam 4N gallium prices spike 43% within a month. |
CSIS |
| 16 Apr 2024 |
DoD awards $14.4 million via the Defense Production Act Investment
Program to 5N Plus to expand space-qualified germanium substrate production for satellite
solar cells. |
Semiconductor Today |
| 3 Dec 2024 |
MOFCOM Announcement No. 46 of 2024: China bans exports of gallium,
germanium, antimony and superhard materials to the United States, with an extraterritorial
transshipment clause — the first China-specific dual-use export ban targeting a single country. |
CSET translation |
| 2 Jan 2025 |
MOFCOM amends its export control catalogue to add gallium-extraction technologies
(ion-exchange and resin methods for recovering gallium from bauxite mother liquor),
restricting transfer of the extraction know-how itself. |
CSIS |
| May 2025 |
China launches a coordinated interagency crackdown on smuggling and transshipment of
restricted critical minerals, including gallium and germanium, through Southeast Asia. |
CSIS |
| 7 May 2025 |
Rio Tinto and Indium Corporation announce the first successful extraction of primary
gallium from Rio Tinto's alumina refining process at Sorel-Tracy, Quebec, Canada. |
Rio Tinto news release |
| Sep 2025 |
DPA Title III awards $29.9 million to ElementUSA (Louisiana, gallium/scandium
from industrial waste) and $18.5 million to Lattice Materials (Montana,
germanium optics). |
DPA Title III infographic |
| 9 Nov 2025 |
MOFCOM Announcement No. 72 of 2025: China suspends the presumption-of-denial
ban on gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard material exports to the United States until
27 November 2026, following the Trump-Xi Busan summit; the military end-user ban remains in force. |
Pillsbury Law |
| 15 Dec 2025 |
Department of War invests $18.1 million in DPA Title III funds in 5N Plus
to expand germanium metal refining capacity sevenfold at its Utah facility, to more than 20
metric tons annually. |
Department of War press release |
| 2 Mar 2026 |
Government of Canada provisionally approves C$18.95 million (~US$13.86 million)
for Rio Tinto's gallium metal R&D project at Sorel-Tracy. |
Reuters |
| Feb 2026 |
U.S. Army places a $1 billion year-two production order with RTX/Raytheon
for the GaN-based LTAMDS (GhostEye) missile-defense radar, the intended successor to the
Patriot system. |
Military Aerospace |
| 19 Jun 2026 |
Fastmarkets begins publishing a dedicated Gallium 99.99% DDP-US reference price at
$2,300–$2,500/kg, with a Rotterdam warehouse transaction recorded at $2,925/kg
— formal recognition of a structural US price premium over Chinese domestic gallium
(~$277/kg). |
Fastmarkets, via BankingNews |
What the timeline shows: gallium's weaponization followed the same
two-step pattern China later applied to antimony: first licensing (2023), building
administrative capacity and end-user visibility, then an outright country-specific ban
(December 2024) once the licensing infrastructure was in place. The November 2025 suspension
eased headline restrictions without restoring actual trade volumes, and by mid-2026 Western
gallium markets had priced in a durable, multi-year premium over Chinese domestic gallium.
Structural — multi-year
There is no gallium mine anywhere in the world. Virtually all primary gallium is
recovered as a trace byproduct of the Bayer process used to refine bauxite into alumina, with a
smaller share recovered from zinc-ore processing residues — meaning gallium supply rises and
falls with decisions made in the aluminium and zinc industries, not with gallium demand itself
(
USGS MCS 2026).
1. The Bayer process: why alumina refiners, not miners, control gallium supply
Gallium substitutes isomorphously for aluminium in bauxite ore at concentrations of roughly
20–80 parts per million. During the Bayer process, approximately 70% of that gallium
dissolves into the caustic sodium aluminate liquor used to extract alumina, while the remaining
30% is lost to bauxite residue (red mud); because the liquor recirculates continuously, gallium
concentrates over time to 100–500 mg/L, at which point it becomes economical to extract via
ion-exchange resin, solvent extraction, or electrolytic deposition onto a liquid-gallium cathode
(ICSOBA, Selective Extraction of Gallium from Bayer Liquor;
summary of Bayer process gallium recovery).
Crude gallium recovered this way is only 97–99.9% pure and must be further refined by acid
washing and fractional crystallization to reach the six-nines (99.9999%) purity required for
semiconductor-grade material
(Techniques de l'Ingénieur, Gallium Metallurgy).
Because gallium extraction requires bolting a dedicated ion-exchange or electrolysis circuit onto
an existing, unrelated alumina refinery, the decision to recover gallium at all is a discretionary
capital choice for the refinery's owner — one most Western alumina producers have historically
declined to make once Chinese material undercut them on price.
2. Chalco, Rusal and Rio Tinto Alcan: the world's biggest alumina refiners mostly do not produce gallium
China's own primary gallium output is concentrated among a handful of specialist chemical
producers — Aluminum Corporation of China Ltd. (Chalco), Beijing Jia Semi-Conductor Material
Co., China Crystal Technologies, East Hope Mianchi Gallium Industry, and Zhuhai Fangyuan —
that operate gallium-recovery circuits alongside China's vast alumina refining base
(Indian Bureau of Mines, Gallium chapter).
By contrast, the world's other alumina majors have largely stayed out of gallium: Rio Tinto Alcan's
Canadian and Australian alumina refineries did not recover gallium at all until the 2025
Sorel-Tracy demonstration (see Section 3), and Rusal — despite operating major alumina
refineries at Aughinish (Ireland), Kübal (Sweden), and across Russia, Guinea and Jamaica —
lists gallium metal at 99.99% and 99.999% purity among its product range from Russian facilities,
but Western sanctions imposed after 2022 have cut off roughly 40% of Rusal's alumina feedstock
(following Australia's alumina export ban and the loss of its Nikolaev, Ukraine refinery) and
constrained its ability to expand gallium output for non-Russian buyers
(Rusal, product range;
Carnegie Endowment, Jul 2024).
Alcoa, the largest Western alumina refiner, has only just begun a pilot gallium-recovery project
with Japan Australia Gallium Associates (a Sojitz-Japanese government joint venture) at its
Wagerup refinery in Western Australia, processing up to 10% of the refinery's liquor stream through
a co-located ion-exchange plant — the first dedicated Western gallium plant built at an
operating alumina refinery in a generation
(Alcoa, Gallium Project Factsheet).
3. Germany's Ingal Stade and the Rusal ownership legacy
Germany's only historical primary gallium producer of scale, Ingal Stade GmbH, operated a
gallium-extraction plant co-located with the aluminium industry at Stade, near Hamburg — a
facility that for a period fell under Russian ownership as Rusal expanded its European downstream
footprint before Western sanctions reshaped ownership structures across Rusal's international
asset base
(North Data, Ingal Stade GmbH corporate record).
Germany's continued prominence in gallium trade statistics — a 1,111% rise in its share of
U.S. gallium imports between 2022 and 2024 — is now driven primarily by recycling of
semiconductor-manufacturing scrap rather than by Ingal-style primary Bayer-liquor extraction, per
the Stimson Center's 2025 analysis of the German trade data referenced in Section 5 of this
deep-dive
(Stimson Center, Mar 2025).
4. Nyrstar Auby (France) and Clarksville (Tennessee): zinc smelting as the other byproduct route
The secondary byproduct pathway runs through zinc smelting: sphalerite (zinc sulfide) ore is
roasted to zinc oxide and leached with sulfuric acid, and gallium reports to impurity fractions
that can be separated from the leach solution
(gallium/germanium byproduct feedstock analysis, 2023).
Nyrstar's Auby, France zinc smelter — part of the same pan-European Nyrstar
network as the Clarksville, Tennessee facility discussed in Section 3 — was placed on
care-and-maintenance as early as December 2021 amid a European energy-cost crisis that made
electricity-intensive zinc smelting uneconomic, with repeat idling announcements through 2022;
Nyrstar has since explored restarting germanium and gallium extraction at its remaining European
zinc assets even as full smelter operations at some sites have been slow to resume, underscoring
how energy costs — not gallium economics — can determine whether a byproduct stream
exists at all
(Nyrstar press release, Auby care and maintenance;
Nyrstar press release, Dec 2021).
Clarksville, by contrast, was reactivated specifically as a gallium/germanium play once China's
2023 export controls created a structural Western price premium, illustrating that byproduct
gallium capacity switches on and off based on trade policy and energy prices in the host
industry, not gallium fundamentals alone
(Clarksville Now, Sep 2023).
Current status (July 2026):
China's dominance in gallium is a refining-and-chemistry dominance, not a resource-endowment
dominance — USGS estimates gallium contained in world bauxite resources exceeds one million
tonnes, spread across Australia, Guinea, Brazil, Vietnam, Jamaica and India, none of which China
controls. The bottleneck is that almost no non-Chinese alumina or zinc refiner has historically
chosen to install gallium-recovery circuits, because Chinese byproduct gallium was cheap enough to
make Western recovery uneconomic before 2023.
Watch: Alcoa Wagerup ramp-up, Rio Tinto Sorel-Tracy scale-up, any Rusal
Aughinish/Kübal gallium announcement, USGS MCS 2027 country-level production breakdown.
Integrated circuits account for 73% of U.S. gallium consumption and optoelectronic devices
(LEDs, laser diodes, photodetectors, solar cells) for the remaining 26%
(
USGS MCS 2026).
Within ICs, the fastest-growing segment is gallium nitride (GaN) power semiconductors displacing
silicon in EV, 5G, and data-center power electronics, while gallium arsenide (GaAs) remains
entrenched in RF front-ends for smartphones and defense radar.
1. GaN power semiconductors: Wolfspeed, EPC and Navitas race to displace silicon and challenge SiC
GaN's wide bandgap (3.4 eV versus silicon's 1.1 eV) lets it switch at 1–10 MHz with far lower
losses than silicon, shrinking passive components and enabling smaller, lighter power converters
for EV onboard chargers, DC-DC converters, 48V AI-data-center power architectures, and fast
consumer chargers
(Navitas Semiconductor, SiC Evolution and GaN Revolution white paper).
Navitas Semiconductor has partnered with Taiwan's Powerchip Semiconductor
Manufacturing Corp to move GaN-on-silicon production from 150mm to 200mm wafers, targeting
higher-volume 48V infrastructure for hyperscale AI data centers and EVs, with 100V-class devices
beginning production in H1 2026
(Semiconductor Today, Jul 2025).
EPC (Efficient Power Conversion) and GaN Systems have driven commercial e-mode GaN
device costs down from over $10/amp in 2018 to under $2/amp by 2025 through high-volume consumer
charger and automotive qualification programs
(Quest Journals, SiC and GaN in EV charging systems).
Wolfspeed, historically a silicon-carbide specialist, also supplies GaN-on-SiC
power amplifiers for 5G base-station infrastructure to Ericsson and Nokia from its Durham, North
Carolina fabs — making its Chapter 11 restructuring a direct supply-security concern for
Western GaN-on-SiC availability
(SemiconductorX, 5G/6G Wireless Semiconductor Supply Chain analysis).
2. GaAs RF: Skyworks, Qorvo and Broadcom anchor the smartphone and infrastructure front-end market
Gallium arsenide remains the incumbent semiconductor for radio-frequency power amplifiers in
smartphone front-end modules, where Qorvo (dominant QPM-series RFFE modules) and
Skyworks (SKY-series PA and RFFE modules, with an Osaka GaAs fab joint venture with
Panasonic) supply the large majority of 5G handset PA content, alongside Broadcom's
AFEM-series front-end modules
(SemiconductorX, 5G/6G Wireless Semiconductor Supply Chain analysis).
Skyworks and Qorvo announced plans in October 2025 to combine into a $22 billion U.S.-based RF
leader, a deal expected to close in early 2027 subject to regulatory approval — consolidating
two of the three largest Western GaAs RF suppliers into a single entity at the same time gallium
feedstock costs are rising
(Qorvo newsroom, 28 Oct 2025).
Taiwan's WIN Semiconductors remains the dominant merchant GaAs foundry supplying this ecosystem,
meaning GaAs capacity additions move at foundry-investment speed rather than commercial-silicon
speed
(SemiconductorX).
3. Substitution status: SiC vs. GaN, Si-LDMOS vs. GaAs — partial and voltage-dependent
USGS identifies specific, documented substitution pathways for gallium-based semiconductors, but
each is partial rather than wholesale. Silicon-based CMOS power amplifiers already compete with
GaAs in mid-tier 3G handsets; indium phosphide can substitute for GaAs infrared laser diodes at
specific wavelengths; silicon-germanium is replacing GaAs in some heterojunction bipolar
transistors; and silicon remains GaAs's principal competitor in solar cells
(USGS MCS 2026).
At the device-architecture level, silicon carbide (SiC) and GaN divide the wide-bandgap power
market by voltage rather than fully substituting for one another: SiC dominates above roughly
650–900V (EV traction inverters, DC fast chargers, solar string inverters, rail), while GaN
leads in the sub-650V, high-frequency segment (onboard chargers, 48V data-center power, USB-C fast
chargers); "vertical GaN" devices that could push GaN into SiC's voltage territory remain in
development at firms like VisIC and Transphorm, with commercial qualification unlikely before
2028–2030
(Cosolvic, SiC vs GaN Decision Framework, May 2026).
Crucially, USGS notes that in many defense-related applications — the radar and missile-defense
uses detailed in Section 4 — no effective substitute for GaAs or GaN currently
exists, meaning the substitution options available in commercial markets do not apply to
the Pentagon's highest-priority gallium demand
(USGS MCS 2026).
4. Recycling: GaAs scrap loops close 27–47% of manufacturing waste, but end-of-life recovery is near zero
USGS reports that gallium recycling is confined entirely to "new scrap" — offcuts and reject
material generated during GaAs wafer and device manufacturing — with "old scrap" (recovery
from discarded end-of-life products such as LEDs or solar panels) at effectively zero, because the
gallium content per unit is too small relative to disassembly cost to justify recovery
(USGS MCS 2026).
Neo Performance Materials (Peterborough, Ontario, and a gallium trichloride plant
in Quapaw, Oklahoma) is the leading Western recycler, purchasing low-grade primary gallium and new
scrap from GaAs ingot and wafer manufacturing and refining it up to 8N (99.999999%) purity; Neo
closed a second U.S. recycling facility in Blanding, Utah in 2020, consolidating capacity at
Peterborough
(Neo Performance Materials, Gallium Products;
USGS 2021 Minerals Yearbook, gallium).
Independent estimates suggest specialist recyclers recover only 27–47% of available new-scrap
gallium, leaving a meaningful volume of manufacturing waste unrecovered
(GalliumPrice.com, Gallium Supply Chain analysis, 2026).
Academic recycling research has advanced rapidly since the 2023 controls: a 2025 study published
hydrothermal and triiodide ionic-liquid leaching methods that recover 94–99% of gallium and
arsenic from scrapped GaAs integrated circuits at high purity without hazardous cyanide reagents,
with one method estimated to yield roughly $33,600 in recovered-material value per kilogram of
waste GaAs processed
(Royal Society of Chemistry, Green Chemistry, Mar 2025;
ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering, GaAs IC recycling).
On the policy side, the U.S. Department of Energy's TRACE-Ga program ($6 million,
2025) targets a one-tonne-per-year prototype gallium recovery facility from industrial waste
streams, while in South Korea, Korea Zinc announced plans in early 2026 to invest
roughly 56 billion won (~$40 million) by 2027 to install a gallium recovery process at its Onsan
zinc smelter — explicitly citing gallium as "the first item subject to China's export
controls" as the strategic rationale
(GalliumPrice.com, DOE TRACE-Ga program;
Asia Business Daily, 6 Feb 2026).
Current status (July 2026):
GaN is actively taking share from silicon and, at the margin, from GaAs in RF, while GaAs remains
structurally protected in defense and legacy handset applications with no viable substitute.
Recycling capacity is expanding from a very low base — Neo Performance Materials, Korea
Zinc's Onsan project, and DOE's TRACE-Ga program are the most concrete near-term additions, but
none yet approaches the scale needed to offset China's primary-refining dominance.
Watch: Skyworks-Qorvo merger close (targeted early 2027), Korea Zinc Onsan
gallium line commissioning, DOE TRACE-Ga pilot results, EU CRMA 2030 recycling benchmark (25% of
annual consumption) progress for gallium specifically.